Yenting Lin & His Dots - since 1990s
The dots, and the lines that connect the dots.
真好，總是喜歡這樣的夜晚，什麼東不用多想的寧靜
剛看完班傑明的奇幻之旅，是種奇異的感覺
意思是說
我們每個人，都是part of the world?
some dance, some are sailors, some are mothers....
只不過是眾多的 some... 的其中之一
不只個人在眾人中如此，就連生命中許多的事物也是同樣的道理
all the things are part of something
然後還得再加個 just
Really?
don't know and aren't that sure...
是種深遠看世界的感覺
好像站在很高的巔上，天文望遠鏡搭上廣角鏡頭的視野
不簡單
生活
Sunrise and.......
不就是如此，一波波，時起時伏
夜
事實上不是那麼的靜
我不知道，明天、明年，是否還能有這樣的樣態
只是希望
單純地希望
i hope that i can.....
考完了
就在明信片上這樣寫，也不知道到底是怎麼樣的感覺
是高興的鬆了一口氣，終於可以爽朗的笑兩聲，還是只是又塗完幾次答案卡的手部運動中場休息
有點在最後放開的感覺
也不知道是不在意，還是覺得時間這麼近了、短了，而什麼都是無益，不如隨意？
不知道，也不想多想
反正，考完就是考完了，本來不想對答案最後也還是對完了，什麼事情通通，到禮拜五早上截止，不候
作切割嗎？
就像政治人物常做的一樣？劃清界線。
但誰也都知道
什麼一刀兩斷，全都沒那麼乾淨、俐落
就算想說絕口不提這個話題，不去想，依然
它就是在那邊，因為我的身分，因為我周遭的人，單調乏味的生活終究也只有這些事情殘留
沒有什麼選擇把！
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不管怎的，還是決定出家門
至少，我想讓自己好像、好似＂跳＂離了這個地方一樣
花好久好長的時間和路程讓自己以為真到了很遠、很偏僻的所在
很無聊嗎？
假裝也好，至少，我很享受。
在若有似無的壓力下偷閒喘氣，熬夜閒晃亂吃再變身
雖然，過年要回台中，也會出去玩
但就是，不一樣
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有些飄飄然之感
冷冷稀薄的空氣總讓人有種不清楚的感覺，不知道是不是真的
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這是09首發，但農曆年還沒過
小年夜，不免俗客套地祝大家一下：新年快樂！
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Oh, 突然想起, 我真的很喜歡薰衣草山頭上的那片景, 就, 按照喜好程度, 山、雲、陽光
今年跨年，沒有什麼感覺，連這日子要到了都沒意識到，就跟幾天前剛過的聖誕節一樣。
去年，在民權大橋下，很難想像，感覺真的好久了，一年
各位看倌兒們，看來認識你們可真久了！
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那天腦中閃過一個畫面，來自 "The Lake House" (跳躍時空的情書) 裡邊
是基諾李維跨越2007年的時候，外邊在慶祝，他也跟朋友在一起慶祝
但倒數的時候、的那刻，他站在窗邊，一杯酒，看著外面
好像什麼都與他無關一樣
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FM107.7 台北之音 即將消逝，被 HitFM 取代
那天聽到的是一個節目，在讓聽眾 call in
讓大家說說自己的感覺，恩，因為這是這節目的最後一次
上次也聽到同樣的情況時，是小學四年級把！
才剛開始聽收音機沒多久，那節目就消失了
說實在，這兩個節目我都不熟悉、不認識，但就是很好奇那種感覺
原來，光是歌詞，幾段旋律，那 DJ (Disc Jockey)
連結就產生了
伴隨著一些記憶、習慣，就讓人難忘了
其實，是種依賴把！
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就是身為人，才會想。
才會想說為什麼這樣，為什麼那樣
也就是說，有點越來越單調的感覺
很多事都靜了下來。
范瑋琪 - 你 作詞：范瑋琪/陳淑秋 作曲：范瑋琪
Do Re Mi Fa Sol La Si Do
這是為你寫的歌
每個音符都是悠揚的快樂
我聽見了整個世界
因此 微笑了
Oh I used to be blue and lonely
Thank god that I’ve found you, darling
You don’t have to know me but you truly make me happy
Once again I thank you darling
You have made my whole world shining
I believe that this time true love really comes to me
在孤單的時候我會 想念著你的手
感覺手心暖暖傳來你的熱
我知道你終究會來
所以 我期待
Oh 我不明白什麼是愛 直到發現你的存在
整個世界忽然好像被你填滿色彩
我才發現這就是愛 簡簡單單像個小孩
所謂真愛不過就是看你笑開懷
Oh 我不明白什麼是愛 直到發現你的存在
整個世界忽然好像被你填滿色彩
我才發現這就是愛 簡簡單單像個小孩
所謂真愛不過就是看你笑開懷
Oh 我不明白什麼是愛 直到發現你的存在
整個世界忽然好像被你填滿色彩
Oh 我才發現這就是愛 簡簡單單像個小孩
所謂真愛不過就是看你笑開懷
Once again I thank you darling
You have made my whole world shining
I believe that this time true love really comes to me
More Limited Military Superiority
In 2025, the US will still retain unique military capabilities, especially its ability to project military power globally, that other nations will continue to envy and rely on to secure a safer world. The United States’ ability to protect the
“global commons” and ensure the free flow of energy could gain greater prominence as concerns over energy security grow. The US also will continue to be viewed as the security partner of choice by many states confronted with the rise of potential hostile nuclear powers. Although the emergence of new nuclear-weapon states may constrain US freedom of action, US military superiority in both conventional and nuclear weapons and missile defense capabilities will be a critical element in deterring openly aggressive behavior on the part of any new nuclear states. The US will also be expected to play a significant role in using its military power to counter global terrorism.
“Anticipated developments in the security environment leading to 2025 may raise questions about traditional US advantages in conventional military power.”
However, potential US adversaries will continue to try to level the playing field by pursuing asymmetrical strategies designed to exploit perceived US military and political vulnerabilities. In the future, advanced states might engage in counterspace trikes, network attacks, and information warfare to disrupt US military operations on the eve of a conflict. Cyber and sabotage attacks on critical US economic, energy, and transportation infrastructures might be viewed by some adversaries as a way to circumvent US strengths on the battlefield and attack directly US interests at home. In addition, the continued proliferation of long-range missile systems, anti-access capabilities, and nuclear weapons and other forms of WMD might be perceived by potential adversaries and US allies alike as increasingly constraining US freedom of action in time of crisis despite US conventional military superiority.
˙ Traditional US allies, particularly Israel and Japan, could come to feel less secure in 2025 than they do today as a result of emerging unfavorable demographic trends within their respective countries, resource scarcities, and more intensive military competitions in the Middle East and East Asia, especially if there is also doubt about the vitality of US security guarantees.
Surprises and Unintended Consequences
As we have made clear throughout this volume, the next 15-20 years contain more contingencies than certainties. All actors—not just the United States—will be affected by unforeseen “shocks.” For various reasons the US appears better able than most to absorb those shocks, but US fortunes also ride on the strength and resiliency of the entire international system, which we judge to be more fragile and less prepared for the implications of obvious trends like energy security, climate change, and increased conflict, let alone surprises. While, by their nature, surprises are not easily anticipated, we have tried through the scenarios to lay out possible alternative futures and each is suggestive of possible changes in the US role.
A World Without the West.
In this scenario the US withdraws and its role is diminished. In dealing with unstable parts of the world in its neighborhood like Afghanistan, China, and India, the Central Asians must form or bolster other partnerships—in this case the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The fragmentation and breakdown of the global order into regional and other blocs—while not on the scale of US-Soviet bipolar split—probably would usher in an era of slower economic growth and globalization, less effective action on transnational issues like climate change and energy security, and the potential for increased political instability.
October Surprise.
The lack of effective management of the tradeoffs among globalization, economic growth, and environmental damage is shared widely among more players than the US. Implicit in the scenario is the need for better US leadership and stronger multilateral institutions if the world is to avoid even more devastating crises. The results of miscalculation on the part of others—such as the Chinese—have significant political costs, which probably would make it more difficult for the US and others to put together a plan for more sustainable economic development, including conflicts among the major powers.
BRICs’ Bust-Up.
In this scenario, growing great power rivalries and increasing energy insecurity lead to a military confrontation between India and China. The US is perceived by Beijing as favoring India to China’s detriment. Great power war is averted, but the protagonists must rely on a third party—in this case Brazil—to help reconstitute the international fabric. Given the BRICs’ disarray, the United States’ power
is greatly enhanced, but the international system is in for a bumpy ride as the militaryclash leads to internal upheavals increasing nationalist fervor.
Politics Is Not Always Local.
On some issues, such as the environment, a seismic shift in government versus onstate actor authorities has occurred. For the first time, a coalition of nonstate actors is seen by a large number of electorates as better representing “planetary” interests and, in this scenario, governments must heed their advice or face serious political costs. This may not always be the case since on other more traditional national security issues, national, ethnic, class and other differences are likely to re-emerge, undercutting the clout of transnational political movements. The US, like other governments, must adapt to the changing political landscape.
Leadership Will Be Key
As we indicated at the beginning of the study, human actions are likely to be the crucial determinant of the outcomes. Historically, as we have pointed out, leaders and their ideas—positive and negative—were among the 99 biggest game-changers during the last century. Individually and collectively over the next 15-20 years, leaders are likely to be crucial to how developments turn out, particularly in terms of ensuring a more positive outcome. As we have emphasized, today’s trends appear to be heading toward a potentially more fragmented and conflicted world over the next 15-20 years, but bad outcomes are not inevitable. International leadership and cooperation will be necessary to solve the global challenges and to understand the complexities surrounding them. This study is meant as an aid in that process: by laying out some of the alternative possibilities we hope to help policymakers steer us toward positive solutions.